2025 Recession Predictions. The expansionary policies of a second trump administration imply faster growth, higher interest rates and higher inflation. The us has a 56% chance of slipping into a downturn by june 2025, according to the latest estimate from new york fed economists.

The probability of a recession by the end of 2025 currently sits at 45%, according to the report. They forecast gdp growth to beat expectations at 2.5% in 2025, and for rate cuts to continue through q1 before the fed slows the pace toward the end of the cutting cycle.